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FiveThirtyEight.com's Nate Silver, who was known for his baseball statistics innovations and knowledge before taking over last summer's presidential predictions beat, has taken his skills to the world of soccer. He has a new rating system, the Soccer Power Index, that he has used to analyze today's World Cup draw for ESPN.

Fans of the beautiful game will enjoy this analysis. Unfortunately, Silver's analysis indicates the chances are good that the United States will find itself in a difficult group next summer in South Africa.

It was one of those days that remind a person of the frustration and beauty we can see in baseball.

My friend Matt hosted me at his family's outstanding seats at San Francisco's AT&T Park today as the Giants hosted the San Diego Padres. Matt could not promise another no-hitter (the Giants were understandably still heavily promoting Jonathan Sanchez's no-no from two days earlier). We also were left to wonder whether we'd see the good Barry Zito on the mound for the Giants or the bad one.

When we took our seats, I looked at the scoreboard and noticed that the Padres were starting four players who were entering the day with batting averages below .200. That required a second look. And, no, the starting pitcher was not one of the four. I am quite certain I have never seen anything like that before.

So, what happened? Of course: Zito did not pitch well. Those Padre batting averages soared. It didn't even take long to figure out: the Padres began the game single-single-home run. 3-0 after five minutes. Add three more runs (on another three-run HR) in the third, and it was clear it was time to start thinking about when to go get a Ghirardelli hot fudge sundae. San Diego ended up winning 10-4, and three of those four Padres had good enough days at the plate to get their batting averages comfortably above .200 by the end of the game.

Upon arriving home, I turned on ESPN to watch my beloved (sigh) Cubs play arch-rival St. Louis. The Cubs lost 4-2 (after winning the first game of the doubleheader earlier in the day) blowing a chance to enter the All-Star Break above .500 and now 3.5 games out of first. That was frustrating enough. What was unforgivable was watching all three Cubs batters in the bottom of the ninth be struck out looking on the third strike.

That might be an apt way for the Cubs to enter the All-Star Break: with a frustrating loss exposing more missed chances.

Given the way the first half of the season has gone, I probably should be more happy that my team remains in striking distance of the division lead. I'm having trouble building that enthusiasm.

Yes, it's a long season. But the Chicago Cubs' 8-3 loss today to the St. Louis Cardinals highlights problems the Cubs have had all season. Bleed Cubbie Blue's Al Yellen explains how another bullpen meltdown, bad defense, and rain delay mixed together to result in another dreadful loss:

Even after Albert Pujols poked a wind-aided HR into the CF basket in the fifth inning, the 4-3 deficit didn't seem insurmountable -- until Aaron Heilman came into the game. Really, Jim Hendry -- this was a completely worthless acquisition. Heilman simply can't throw strikes -- he issued three walks in the inning. 34 pitches, 14 strikes. That's just not major league quality. And back to Harden for a moment -- what on Earth was he doing walking Chris Carpenter? Coming into today's game, Carpenter had a lifetime BA of .097 and 8 -- EIGHT -- walks in 282 career plate appearances. How can you walk a guy like that?!?!? Just throw him strikes!

Back to the sixth inning, if you can stand it -- Alfonso Soriano made this ridiculous inning worse by calling Ryan Theriot off of a popup into short left that Theriot had a bead on, and dropping it. Oh, sure, he managed to throw to second to force a very surprised Rick Ankiel, but a run scored. No run would have scored had Theriot caught the popup -- it was too shallow. Then Heilman wild-pitched in another run.

Plays like that in games like this can shake the soul of any fan. I keep waiting for the Cubs to turn it around and play to their potential. The beauty and curse of baseball is that, over a long season, sometimes you learn that what you see on the field really is the team's potential.

This Cubs fan is left wondering today if a .500 season is this team's potential, rather than all those optimistic preseason analysis.

Talk about your unexpected headlines: as I was starting my almost-daily regimen of surfing the English newspaper web sites for Premier League news, I was initially quite taken back when I saw that Manchester United was on the verge of signing troubled/cursed/erstwhile Newcastle United striker Michael Owen on a free transfer.

What?

Then, after a quick chant of "Every Single One Of Us Loves Alex Ferguson mp3 here," I gave this one some more thought: and the more I liked the idea.

The risk appears to be low, as reports are this is an incentive-laden deal. The Red Devils get a player who is not yet 30, has something (a lot of something) to prove (including, perhaps, a last chance to get back on the England World Cup team), and is reunited with Wayne Rooney.

No, it is not what I was expecting to see after the Reds collected Real Madrid's £80 million. But the crazy spending binge being led by Real Madrid has changed what is possible in this transfer window.

I know many fellow Manchester United supporters will not agree: but in my view this is a risk worth taking, assuming he passes the "stringent physical" required before signing. He'll know this is his last shot to regain his reputation.

It may not work, but all of the elements are in place to make success possible. Now we'll see if this is but a mere transfer rumor or something more substantial.

Even for a fan of the Chicago Cubs, this day is full of hope. Right, Mr. Vedder?

Wow...does Liverpool manager Rafa Benitez really think Manchester United's Sir Alex Ferguson is going to be rattled by a press conference? Especially when Manchester United has a huge match with Chelsea on Sunday? EPL Talk has the story.

I'm sure the NHL is happy with the corporate sponsorships of its All-Star Game balloting, but can the league really approve of a system that denies Washington Capitals forward Alex Ovechkin of a starting spot? As D.C. Sports Blog's Dan Steinberg puts it:

Through blatant homerism, technological manipulation and a desire to establish that the will of the people is dumb, NHL fans failed to elect the game's reigning MVP and most exciting young star.

Then again, Ovechkin is likely to find more inspiration from this snub, which will only help the Washington Capitals' drive to the playoffs.

Oh, hell. Even I won't stretch that much to make lemonade out of this stupidity. This is an embarrassment for the National Hockey League.

As a Chicago Cubs fan (ouch) and a fan of the National Hockey League, I am excited for the New Years Day NHL Winter Classic. Al at Bleed Cubbie Blue has some photos of Wrigley Field decked out for the hockey game and NHL Fanhouse's by Eric McErlain has taken some video in the upper deck after getting a chance to skate on the ice for 20 minutes.

During intermissions at Stockton Thunder games, we are often forced to watch a Reebok ad featuring Pittsburgh Penguin star Sidney Crosby.

I often mention my displeasure at the ad, as I am (to be generous) not a huge fan of Crosby. (My wife finds these outbursts slightly annoying.)

As a Washington Capitals fan, I find most things Pittsburgh Penguin annoying or worse. The Penguins have caused far too much heartache and frustration.

Now I am forced to watch the NHL focus its advertising on Crosby, while overlooking the league's reigning MVP, Washington Capitals star Alex Ovechkin.

Even someone like the New York Post's Larry Brooks is noting the NHL's stupidity:

Look, Crosby is an admirable individual and great player. But the NHL has made a drastic error in anointing No. 87 as The Chosen One. The NHL's All-Crosby-All-The-Time marketing machine has been detrimental to the sport by virtue of its exclusionary policy.

We get it, Crosby is Canadian and Ovechkin is Russian. But we also get that focusing on one athlete at the expense of a contemporary at least his equal and now clearly his superior, is stupid strategy that makes for horrible business policy.

Even I have to admit Crosby's greatness as a player. But the NHL's decision to overlook Ovechkin is an all-too-typical poor marketing decision that will cost the league in the future.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the National Football League better hope there is more to this story, because being a fan of the visiting team should not lead to being placed in handcuffs, a full-body frisking, detention, and ejection from the stadium.

(Hat tip: Deadspin)

Why, oh why, did I listen to this song three times tonight while driving? Should I blame the iPod? Or seek professional help?

No, we don't see this in ice hockey every day.

Minnesota State's Zach Harrison scored three straight shorthanded goals in a 5-1 victory over North Dakota earlier this month. Here's the video. It isn't the first time this has happened in hockey history, but this is really rare--and it has not happened in the National Hockey League.

(Hat tip: Two Line Pass)

Yes, I am not particularly pleased that the Red Sox rally from seven runs down last night is a chance to remind everyone that the Cubs still hold the record for largest lead lost in a postseason baseball game -- blowing an 8-0 lead in the 1929 World Series to Connie Mack's Philadelphia A's.

The A's scored 10 runs in the seventh inning, a rally fed in part when Hack Wilson lost a fly ball in the sun, leading to a rare inside-the-park grand slam home run.

So, yes. I am still bitter about the Cubs choke this year. Very. Bitter.

That damn Billy Goat is not my friend.