Recently in Campaigns and Elections Category

I am just shocked, shocked to learn that one of our famous California initiatives apparently did not allocate a reasonable amount of money to get its job done. KQED's John Myers has the story:

Just a little over a year after voters created an independent commission to draw most of California's political maps, the process is costing a lot more money than was allocated.

In fact, it's possible the commission that's slated to convene in 2011 may have as its first task to ask lawmakers for more funding.

Because if it is one thing California's general fund needs, is more unexpected funding demands placed upon it.

One of the reforms under discussion in California right now would require initiatives to spell out a funding source instead of relying on the general fund and thus forcing cuts to education and health and human services programs.

Proposition 11 is just the latest example of the need for such a standard.

The weekly Daily Kos/Research 2000 tracking poll has a few results that should worry every Democrat less than a year from the mid-term elections.

QUESTION: In the 2010 Congressional elections will you definitely vote, probably vote, not likely vote, or definitely will not vote?

The results were, to put it mildly, shocking:

Voter Intensity: Definitely + Probably Voting/Not Likely + Not Voting

Republican Voters: 81/14
Independent Voters: 65/23
DEMOCRATIC VOTERS: 56/40

We knew Republican voters were fired up. But look at those Democratic results: only 56 percent say they are definitely or probably voting in 2010, and 40 percent say they are not likely or definitely not voting.

Now, there is still a year to go, so there is still time to change some minds. But the President Obama, his administration, and Congressional Democratic leaders may want to spend as much time visibly trying to reignite Democratic voters' interest as they are trying to get Senator Olympia Snowe's (R-Maine) vote.

On the Blockbuster Democracy Blog, Joe Mathews notes that the right-wing recall effort against Assemblyman Anthony Adams (R) failed because more than half of the signatures submitted in San Bernardino County were invalid.

Adams was targeted for recall because of his sanity during last February's state budget debates, when he agreed to vote for temporary tax increases. It is part of a long-standing effort among conservative activists to destroy the political career of any Republican who dares consider voting for taxes as part of a balanced budget solution.

For many reasons, I am glad this radical recall effort failed. Recalls should not be used to settle political scores. We have elections every two years in the State Assembly, which is frequent enough.

A memo to those who have been, um, aggressive (that's a nice way of putting it) in expressing their frustration about my decision to support State Senator Mark DeSaulnier in the 10th Congressional District special election race despite the potential succession of special elections which could follow: a vacancy in the Lt. Governor's office also can have serious consequences on state issues.

Via KQED Radio John Myers' Twitter feed, I learn that the San Francisco Chronicle's Matier and Ross report sources are telling them Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa will not run for governor in 2010. If true, that would leave Attorney General Jerry Brown and San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom as the top two candidates remaining.

Losing two major candidates in this race (as Lt. Governor John Garamendi has decided to seek the 10th Congressional District office in an expected special election) does not make things better. Given how important it is for a Democrat to win this seat in 2010, I'd rather have more top people testing each other to strengthen the eventual primary winner for what will be a tough general election fight.

Some conservatives think President-Elect Barack Obama's advisors are too liberal.

Oh. My. God. And the sun will rise in the east tomorrow. Film at 11.

(This is a story?)

Wow...those Senate Democrats sure show some awesome strategery. Jane Hamsher points out that the Senate Republicans are using the Democrats' refusal to seat Roland Burris as the reason why Al Franken should not be seated provisionally either until all the legal actions are concluded in Minnesota.

Wow...great work. Thanks to the Senate Democratic leadership, two Democrats are not going to be seated.

This is really painful to watch. Can we get some people who can think a few steps ahead, please?

Josh Marshall thinks he has figured out a key part of the Republican Party's post-election strategy:

I think I have this right. The Republican party has decided on the racial joke issue as the vehicle to reintroduce themselves to the American people after the 2008 blow out.

FiveThirtyEight.com's Nate Silver gets the New York Times profile treatment after proving that the use of actual mathematics can lead to incredibly solid presidential analysis.

Outgoing DNC Chair Howard Dean deserves great credit for arguing the need to fight in all 50 states -- despite severe criticism from those who felt the Democrats should keep trying to lose national elections.

The conversation between Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Senator Joe Lieberman (I-Himself) about the latter's status in the Democratic caucus should not be a long one.

Reid should be gracious. Offer the independent the opportunity to keep his seniority and a minor subcommittee chairmanship. But he loses his full committee chairmanship.

Lieberman is fond of giving lectures about personal responsibility. Well, Senator, your decisions have consequences. You attacked the Democratic presidential nominee after you promised not to do so -- a person, moreover, who came to your aid in your last Senatorial election.

If you want to caucus with the Republicans, don't let the door hit you on your behind on the way out.

This is not a negotiation, Senator. This is an accountability moment. You insist on them for others -- now it is time for you to have one yourself.

Good bye, Senator.

Wow. The effort to derail Gov. Sarah Palin's political career began even more quickly than I thought it would -- the day after the election.

Here's a conversation on Fox News Channel between Shepard Smith and correspondent Carl Cameron. According to Cameron, Gov. Palin would not prepare for interviews, did not know the countries in NAFTA free-trade agreement (the U.S., Canada, and Mexico), and did not understand that Africa was a continent and not a country.

My wife makes a great point about this report: if any of this is true, how was it not a story before the campaign -- off-the-record or not? The fact that a campaign talking about "Country First" and "executive experience" was facing these kinds of issues is important. After all, that campaign attempted to put Palin one heartbeat away from the presidency.

And, let me make clear, this is not just a criticism of Fox News Channel. Many other media outlets are running these retrospectives with reporters embedded on the condition that their reporting was to remain secret until after the election.

Now I know our media members love access, but their job should be to REPORT NEWS when it happens, not keep access until it does not really matter after the elections.

Update: Matthew Yglesias reports that right wing blogs are making a list of everyone saying negative things about Gov. Sarah Palin now, so they (and any candidates that hire them) can be attacked in 2012.

I didn't want to post this on my personal blog until now because I was afraid of jinxing things. (Really.) For those of you who live in the Bay Area...

The Lamorinda Democratic Club invites all Lamorindans to an outdoor celebration on Wednesday, November 5th to commemorate this year’s historic elections. Enjoy lively music and refreshments with your fellow Lamorindans from 6:00-8:00 pm in Lafayette Plaza Park (corner of Mt. Diablo Boulevard and Moraga Road). Local officials and state representatives will share their thoughts about this historic election. Bring your family, friends and neighbors and celebrate! Click here for the event flyer.

(Yes, that's me. Hence the "jinxing" fears.)

Drop by if you are in the Lafayette area!

Could someone at NBC please brief Tom Brokaw about this fact? Geez.

(Hat tip: Matthew Yglesias)

I woke up to some emails asking me about my electoral college vote prediction (Obama 338, McCain 200) below. What does it mean?

Basically, I've gone with the worst I think Obama can do tonight. This is, overall, a non-aggressive prediction. I think Obama is going to come close in some red states, but not quite win. This I've signaled with my prediction that North Carolina goes for McCain.

If Obama wins North Carolina -- and those early voting numbers make Obama really competitive or even win Georgia -- then this is a landslide in the making. If McCain makes Virginia, Pennsylvania, or Florida close, then this election will be decided late.

In other races:

I'm predicting the Democrats have 58 Senate seats (56 Democrats, plus Senators Lieberman and Sanders as independents caucusing with them). I think Al Franke. n comes up just short in Minnesota. I also think Georgia's Senate seat is going to go to a run-off -- which will happen if no one finishes with 50 percent or more of the vote. I have the currently Republican Senate seats in Alaska, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon, and Virginia switching to the Democratic column. I have Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell barely surviving.

In the House, I'm predicting the Democrats pick up 27 seats.