Iraq is not Germany or Japan

Is the Bush Administration being too optimistic about the prospects of creating a democratic Iraq in a short period of time? Former Baltimore Sun foriegn correspondent Gene Oishi thinks so.

He makes an important point about Iraq's reconstruction that many optimists in the Bush Administration seem unwilling to recognize:

The U.S. role in the reconstruction of Germany and Japan after World War II was an outstanding example of magnanimity and statesmanship, but the United States did not introduce the concept of democracy or modern economic and industrial practices in either country. To use the German and Japanese experience as case histories for what is possible in Iraq and in the Middle East in general is an exercise in self-delusion.

As Oishi explains, Japan and Germany had experience with democratic institutions, if not full-fledged democracy. Iraq, on the other hand, has no similar experience. It is also a nation created by England and France. The Kurds, Shiites, and Sunnis have their own political aspirations. For these reasons, Oishi argues that:

To point to Japan and Germany as examples of what can be accomplished through war and rehabilitation in the Middle East is unrealistic; it is an analogy not supported by history.

That is not to say it is impossible. But reconstruction will take years. A point about which the Bush Administration, and its allies who argued for this war, continue to fudge.